The Directors Guild of America just dropped the most important clue of awards season.
Five directors. Five films. One winner who will instantly become the Oscars’ biggest threat.
Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another. Ryan Coogler for Sinners. Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein. Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme. Chloé Zhao for Hamnet.
These five names now define the 2026 Best Director race. The DGA nomination is the single most accurate predictor of who will win the Academy Award for Best Director. Since 1948, only seven DGA winners have failed to win the Oscar. That’s a 94 percent match rate.
So when the Directors Guild announced its 2026 nominees, it wasn’t just a list. It was a roadmap to Oscar night.
Anderson’s inclusion is no surprise. He’s a modern master. But Coogler’s first DGA nod? That’s historic. Del Toro and Zhao returning? That’s a power move. Safdie’s debut? That’s a shock.
Want to know who’s actually winning Best Director at the Oscars? Look at this DGA shortlist. The real race starts now.
Why The DGA Nominations Matter More Than You Think
Most people think the Golden Globes or the Critics Choice Awards decide the Oscar race. They don’t.
The Directors Guild of America (DGA) nomination is the real power move. Why? Because the DGA is made up of working directors. These are the people who actually understand what it takes to direct a film.
When the DGA chooses its five nominees, it’s not just about popularity or marketing. It’s about craft. It’s about vision. It’s about who actually pulled off something extraordinary behind the camera.
Historically, the DGA winner almost always wins the Oscar for Best Director. Since 1948, only seven DGA winners have lost the Oscar. That’s a 94 percent accuracy rate. In the last 20 years, only two DGA winners failed to win the Oscar.
That means if a director wins the DGA Award, they are 94 percent likely to win the Oscar. That’s not a guess. That’s math.
So when the DGA announced its 2026 nominees, it wasn’t just a list of names. It was a near guarantee of who will be holding the Oscar for Best Director in March.
The five nominees are:
- Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
- Ryan Coogler – Sinners
- Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein
- Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
- Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
These five directors now own the Best Director conversation. The Oscars race is officially set.
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Paul Thomas Anderson: The Master Returns
Credits: THR
Paul Thomas Anderson is not just a director. He’s a filmmaker’s filmmaker. His name alone carries weight in the industry. When he makes a movie, other directors pay attention.
One Battle After Another is Anderson’s latest epic. A politically charged, action packed, emotionally raw film about revolution, race, and systemic corruption. It’s the kind of movie that doesn’t just entertain. It challenges.
Anderson has been nominated for the DGA Award twice before: for There Will Be Blood and Licorice Pizza. Both times, he lost. But both times, he was considered one of the strongest directors in the room.
This year, he’s back with a film that feels like his most urgent work yet. One Battle After Another is not subtle. It’s loud, angry, and unapologetically political. It’s also technically brilliant – long takes, complex choreography, and a score that feels like a character in itself.
The DGA nomination is a recognition of Anderson’s craft. It’s a nod to his ability to balance massive action with intimate character work. It’s also a sign that the industry sees this as a Best Picture contender.
If Anderson wins the DGA Award, he will be the favorite to win the Oscar for Best Director. That would be his first win in the category, despite being one of the most respected directors of his generation.
Anderson’s presence on this list is not a surprise. It’s a statement. The DGA is saying: this is what great directing looks like.
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Ryan Coogler: A Historic First
Credits: THR
Ryan Coogler’s nomination for Sinners is not just a personal achievement. It’s a historic moment.
This is Coogler’s first DGA nomination for Best Director. For a director who made Black Panther, Creed, and Fruitvale Station, that fact alone is shocking. But it’s true. The DGA has never recognized Coogler in the top category until now.
Coogler is only the fifth Black director ever nominated by the DGA in the main feature film category. The others are Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), and Lee Daniels (Precious).
Here’s the brutal truth: no Black director has ever won the DGA Award for Best Director. And no Black director has ever won the Oscar for Best Director.
If Coogler wins the DGA Award, he would make history. He would be the first Black director to win the DGA’s top prize. That would also make him the strongest contender to win the Oscar.
Sinners is Coogler’s most ambitious film yet. A crime drama with deep social commentary, exploring systemic injustice, family loyalty, and the cost of survival. It’s a film that feels both personal and universal.
The DGA nomination is a long overdue recognition of Coogler’s talent. It’s also a sign that the industry is finally catching up to what audiences have known for years: Coogler is one of the most important directors working today.
If he wins, it won’t just be a personal victory. It will be a cultural moment.
Don’t miss out on this before everyone else realizes its significance.
Guillermo del Toro: The Master of the Strange
Credits: THR
Guillermo del Toro is not just a director. He’s a world builder. When he makes a movie, he doesn’t just tell a story. He creates a universe.
Frankenstein is del Toro’s latest obsession. A reimagining of the classic monster story, but with del Toro’s signature style: gothic, romantic, and deeply emotional. It’s not just a horror film. It’s a tragedy about loneliness, creation, and what it means to be human.
Del Toro has already won the DGA Award once, for The Shape of Water. That film also won the Oscar for Best Director and Best Picture. The DGA win was the clear signal that he was the frontrunner.
Now, he’s back with another film that feels like a passion project. Frankenstein is the kind of movie only del Toro could make. It’s visually stunning, emotionally rich, and thematically complex.
The DGA nomination is a recognition of del Toro’s unique voice. It’s also a sign that the industry sees Frankenstein as a serious Best Picture contender.
If del Toro wins the DGA Award again, he will be in elite company. Only a handful of directors have won the DGA Award twice. That would also make him a strong favorite to win the Oscar.
Del Toro’s presence on this list is not just about talent. It’s about vision. The DGA is saying: this is what original, auteur-driven cinema looks like.
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Chloé Zhao: The Woman Who Changed the Game
Credits: THR
Chloé Zhao is not just a director. She’s a trailblazer. When she won the DGA Award for Nomadland, she made history. She became the first Asian woman to win the DGA’s top prize.
Now, she’s back with Hamnet, her adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel about William Shakespeare’s son. It’s a quiet, intimate, emotionally devastating film about grief, family, and the cost of genius.
Zhao is only the second woman to win the DGA Award for Best Director. The first was Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker. Since then, only a handful of women have even been nominated.
The DGA nomination for Hamnet is a recognition of Zhao’s continued excellence. It’s also a sign that the industry still sees her as one of the most important directors working today.
Zhao’s presence on this list is not just about talent. It’s about representation. The DGA is saying: women, especially women of color, belong in the Best Director conversation.
If Zhao wins the DGA Award again, she will join a very small group of directors who have won the award multiple times. That would also make her a strong favorite to win the Oscar.
Zhao’s nomination is not just a personal achievement. It’s a statement about who gets to tell stories in Hollywood.
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Josh Safdie: The Wild Card
Credits: Empire Magazine
Josh Safdie is not a traditional director. He’s a disruptor. When he makes a movie, it’s chaotic, intense, and emotionally raw. There’s no safety net. There’s no comfort zone.
Marty Supreme is Safdie’s latest film. A high energy, high stakes, character driven drama about fame, ambition, and the cost of success. It’s the kind of movie that doesn’t just entertain. It overwhelms.
This is Safdie’s first DGA nomination for Best Director. For a director known for Uncut Gems and Good Time, that’s a big deal. The DGA is not always kind to directors who work in a more chaotic, improvisational style.
The nomination is a recognition of Safdie’s unique voice. It’s also a sign that the industry sees Marty Supreme as a serious contender.
Safdie’s presence on this list is the wild card. He’s not the safe choice. He’s not the traditional Oscar winner. But he’s the kind of director who can win if the Academy is in the mood for something bold and different.
If Safdie wins the DGA Award, it would be a huge upset. But it would also be a sign that the Academy is willing to reward risk taking, originality, and pure directorial energy.
Safdie’s nomination is not just about talent. It’s about attitude. The DGA is saying: this is what fearless, uncompromising cinema looks like.
Don’t miss out on this before everyone else realizes its power.
Why This DGA Shortlist Is So Important
The DGA shortlist is not just a list of names. It’s a blueprint for the Oscars.
When the DGA chooses its five nominees, it’s not just about who made the best film. It’s about who had the most control, the clearest vision, and the strongest craft.
The fact that the DGA nominees are the same five films nominated for the SAG Award for Best Ensemble (One Battle After Another, Sinners, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Hamnet) is not a coincidence. It’s a sign that these are the films the industry sees as the best of the year.
The DGA nomination is also a sign of momentum. Once a director is on this list, they become the default frontrunner until someone else proves they’re better.
Anderson, Coogler, del Toro, Safdie, and Zhao are now the only directors who matter in the Best Director race. Everyone else is playing catch up.
The DGA Award will be announced in February. That winner will instantly become the Oscar favorite. The real Oscar race starts now.
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The First-Time Directors Who Could Shock Everyone
The DGA doesn’t just honor established masters. It also celebrates new voices.
The First-Time Theatrical Feature Film category is where the next generation of directors gets its first real shot at industry recognition.
The 2026 nominees are:
- Hasan Hadi – The President’s Cake
- Harry Lighton – Pillion
- Charlie Polinger – The Plague
- Alex Russell – Lurker
- Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby
These are the directors who could become the next Anderson, Coogler, or Zhao. They’re the ones who could win the DGA Award and then go on to win the Oscar.
The First-Time category is where surprises happen. A director with a small, personal film can win here and then become a major player in the Best Director race.
If any of these directors win the DGA Award, they will instantly become Oscar frontrunners. That’s the power of this category.
The DGA is saying: the future of cinema is here. These are the voices that will shape the next decade of film.
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What This Means for the Oscars
The DGA nominations are the single most important clue in the Best Director race.
If Anderson wins, he will be the favorite to win the Oscar. If Coogler wins, he will make history. If del Toro wins, he will join the elite group of two time DGA winners. If Zhao wins, she will become only the second woman to win the DGA Award twice. If Safdie wins, it will be a huge upset.
The DGA winner is 94 percent likely to win the Oscar. That’s not a guess. That’s history.
So when the DGA announces its winner in February, the Best Director race will be over. The Oscar winner will be clear.
The real question is not who will win. It’s who will be brave enough to win.
Which director do you think will take home the DGA Award?
Drop your pick in the comments. Share this with your whole group chat. Follow for updates as the Oscars race heats up.
The DGA has spoken. Now the real battle begins.
