November 7, 2025 isn’t just another Friday at the movies, it’s the official beginning of Hollywood’s most chaotic, unpredictable, and absolutely thrilling time of year: Oscar season. While Predator: Badlands might dominate box office headlines this weekend, five other films launching between theaters and streaming platforms are loaded with Academy Award ambitions that could reshape the entire race for the 98th Oscars. Sydney Sweeney transforms into boxer Christy Martin with a performance critics are calling “career-defining” in Christy. Jennifer Lawrence delivers what some say is her best work ever in Lynne Ramsay’s psychological motherhood drama Die, My Love. Joel Edgerton anchors Netflix’s Train Dreams, a Sundance sensation finally getting its wide release. Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, the Cannes Grand Prix winner starring Stellan Skarsgård and Renate Reinsve, opens in limited theaters as Norway’s Oscar submission. And Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein hits Netflix globally after a limited theatrical run that’s already generated serious buzz. With less than three months until nominations get announced February 2026, this weekend represents the moment when awards season shifts from speculation to full-blown war. The question isn’t whether these films will get nominated, it’s how many categories they’ll dominate.
The Boxing Biopic That’s Sweeney’s Oscar Shot
Christy opens in limited theaters nationwide Friday with Sydney Sweeney’s most ambitious performance to date. The 28-year-old actress, known for her work in Euphoria and The White Lotus, underwent a complete physical transformation to play real-life boxing legend Christy Martin. She trained for months to bulk up, learned actual boxing technique, and embodied the fighter who became the most successful female boxer of the 1990s before her husband tried to murder her.
David Michôd directs this Black Bear Pictures release that premiered at TIFF back in September to strong reviews specifically praising Sweeney’s commitment. Critics have noted she doesn’t just look like a boxer, she moves like one, thinks like one, breathes like one. That level of immersion into character is exactly what Academy voters notice when filling out Best Actress ballots. The role requires dramatic range beyond physical transformation: Martin’s story involves closeted sexuality in the hyper-masculine boxing world, domestic abuse from her manager husband Jim (played by Ben Foster), and ultimate survival against impossible odds.
Credits: Deadline
The film’s reviews sit at a mixed 58 on Metacritic, with critics praising Sweeney while finding the overall film formulaic. The New York Times called it fierce while noting treacherous subject matter. Rolling Stone labeled it “decent” while acknowledging Sweeney’s dedication. IndieWire gave it a B+ focusing on how Sweeney transforms not just appearance but entire demeanor and presence. That pattern of “great performance, okay movie” actually helps Sweeney’s Oscar chances, positioning her as an actress elevating material rather than simply being carried by a perfect script.
She’s already secured a Gotham Awards nomination for Outstanding Lead Performance, her first major awards recognition. If momentum builds through November and December with additional nominations from SAG, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes, Sweeney could find herself among the five Best Actress nominees despite being a relative newcomer to prestige drama. Ben Foster’s supporting performance as the abusive husband might also factor into Supporting Actor conversations if voters respond strongly enough to his work.
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Jennifer Lawrence’s Comeback Performance
Mubi releases Die, My Love in select theaters this weekend, giving Jennifer Lawrence her first major Oscar-worthy role since 2021’s Don’t Look Up. The film reunites her with acclaimed director Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin), who’s never received an Oscar nomination despite consistent critical acclaim. That could finally change if Die, My Love performs as expected through awards season.
Lawrence plays a new mother experiencing the isolating, terrifying realities of early motherhood while living in a remote location with husband Robert Pattinson. The film premiered at Cannes in May to immediate acclaim for Lawrence’s raw, vulnerable performance that strips away Hollywood glamour to show genuine psychological struggle. Some critics called it her career-best work, which says something considering she’s already won an Oscar for Silver Linings Playbook and been nominated three additional times for Winter’s Bone, American Hustle, and Joy.
Credits: MUBI
The Gotham Awards already nominated Lawrence for Outstanding Lead Performance, same category as Sweeney, setting up potential head-to-head competition. She also earned a British Independent Film Awards nomination for Best Lead Performance as the only woman in that category. These early nods suggest industry recognition for a performance many felt was overdue after Lawrence spent recent years doing more commercial projects.
The film’s limited release strategy through Mubi means fewer people will see it theatrically compared to wide releases, but that’s actually become advantageous in modern awards campaigns. Specialty distributors like Mubi, A24, Neon, and Searchlight Pictures understand how to position films for maximum awards impact through strategic screenings, critic outreach, and Academy voter engagement. Lawrence’s star power combined with Ramsay’s artistic credibility creates the perfect storm for serious Oscar consideration.
Beyond Lawrence’s acting, there’s an outside chance of Lynne Ramsay finally breaking through in Best Director. The category typically skews toward established auteurs, but voters occasionally reward visionary female directors whose work pushes boundaries. If Die, My Love gains enough support across multiple categories, Ramsay could ride that wave into her first nomination after years of being overlooked.
Don’t miss out on what might be Jennifer Lawrence’s most powerful performance yet!
The Netflix Drama That Started at Sundance
Train Dreams has taken a winding path to this weekend’s release. It premiered at Sundance in January to rave reviews, where Netflix acquired it immediately recognizing awards potential. Now it’s getting limited theatrical release starting Friday before hitting the streaming service November 21, giving it the theatrical qualifying run required for Oscar consideration while ensuring maximum viewership through Netflix’s 247 million global subscribers.
Joel Edgerton stars as a railroad developer whose work building tracks across dangerous terrain puts unbearable strain on his marriage to Felicity Jones and their relationship with their young daughter. Directed by Clint Bentley and co-written with Greg Kwedar, the film explores themes of ambition versus family, the American frontier mythology, and what men sacrifice pursuing dreams that ultimately destroy what matters most.
Credits: Netflix
Edgerton has been winning awards at various film festivals throughout 2025 for this performance, building grassroots support that often translates to Oscar nominations. He’s never been nominated personally despite producing Best Picture winner Boy Erased, so a Best Actor nod would mark his first Academy recognition as performer. The role requires quiet intensity and emotional restraint, the kind of work that doesn’t scream for attention but accumulates power through accumulated small moments.
Train Dreams recently scored Gotham Awards nominations for Best Feature and Best Adapted Screenplay, indicating industry recognition beyond just Edgerton’s performance. Those dual nominations suggest the film works as complete package rather than just star showcase. Other potential categories include Cinematography (the film’s landscapes are reportedly stunning), Supporting Actress for Felicity Jones, and possibly even Best Picture if Netflix campaigns aggressively.
The streaming giant has learned from past Oscar campaigns how to position films for maximum impact. They know when to emphasize theatrical versus streaming, when to flood voters with screeners, when to host intimate Q&As, and how to leverage data about viewing habits to target specific Academy branches. Train Dreams benefits from all that accumulated knowledge and resources, giving it advantages smaller distributors can’t match.
The Cannes Winner Everyone’s Calling Masterpiece
If there’s a frontrunner among this weekend’s releases, it’s Sentimental Value. Joachim Trier’s Norwegian family drama won the Grand Prix at Cannes (the festival’s second-highest prize after the Palme d’Or) back in May and hasn’t stopped accumulating acclaim since. Neon is releasing it in limited theaters Friday with expansion plans through November, positioning it as the arthouse Oscar contender most likely to break through to major categories.
The film stars Stellan Skarsgård as Gustav, a once-famous film director who abandoned his family years ago and suddenly reappears in his daughters’ lives wanting to make an autobiographical film about family trauma. Renate Reinsve (star of Trier’s previous film The Worst Person in the World) plays Nora, the driven stage actress daughter who refuses to participate in her father’s artistic exploitation of their pain. Elle Fanning co-stars as a Hollywood actress Gustav casts instead, adding meta-commentary about fame, family, and the blurred lines between art and life.
Credits: Film at Lincoln Center
Critics who’ve seen Sentimental Value describe it as Trier’s most mature, emotionally complex work yet. His previous film The Worst Person in the World earned Oscar nominations for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay, establishing him as Academy favorite. This film takes his exploration of family dynamics and generational trauma to new depths, balancing humor with heartbreak in ways few directors achieve.
Norway selected Sentimental Value as its submission for Best International Feature Film, making it the odds-on favorite to win that category. But the film’s ambitions extend far beyond the international ghetto. Expect nominations in Best Picture, Best Director for Trier, Best Supporting Actor for Skarsgård, Best Actress for Reinsve, possibly Best Supporting Actress for both Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (who plays the other sister), and Best Original Screenplay for Trier and co-writer Eskil Vogt.
That’s a potential seven or eight nominations for a foreign-language film, which would make it one of the most nominated international films in Oscar history. Only a handful of non-English films have ever achieved Best Picture nominations (Parasite being the obvious recent example), and Sentimental Value has the critical support and distributor muscle to join that exclusive club.
Del Toro’s Monster Gets Netflix Push
While the previous four films are hitting theaters, Frankenstein is using this weekend to expand its audience dramatically via Netflix. Guillermo del Toro’s reimagining of Mary Shelley’s classic novel already had a limited theatrical run in October that generated positive word-of-mouth. Now it’s available to Netflix’s entire global subscriber base, potentially reaching hundreds of millions of viewers over the next few weeks.
Oscar Isaac stars as Dr. Victor Frankenstein with Jacob Elordi as the Creature in del Toro’s characteristically gothic, visually stunning take on the oft-adapted tale. The film premiered at Venice Film Festival to somewhat mixed reactions, not the universal acclaim people expected given del Toro’s track record with The Shape of Water (which won Best Picture and Best Director) and Pan’s Labyrinth. That initial disappointment actually lowered expectations, allowing the film to exceed them as more people discovered it through TIFF and theatrical releases.
Credits: THR
Frankenstein is now firmly in conversation for multiple categories. A Best Picture nomination seems realistic given del Toro’s Academy credibility and Netflix’s campaign resources. Supporting Actor buzz for Jacob Elordi has intensified as voters appreciate his physically and emotionally demanding performance as the Creature. Below-the-line categories like Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Costume Design, and Visual Effects all seem likely given the film’s spectacular visual craft.
The Netflix release strategy gives Frankenstein visibility advantage over limited theatrical releases that many voters won’t bother seeing. Academy members can watch it from home on their own schedule, making it more likely they’ll actually experience the film before voting. That accessibility combined with del Toro’s reputation creates ideal conditions for strong nomination tallies even if it doesn’t win major categories.
Your Oscar Predictions Start Now
Which of these five films will dominate the Oscar race? Is Sydney Sweeney about to become a first-time nominee? Can Jennifer Lawrence add a fifth nomination to her resume? Will Sentimental Value make history as one of the most nominated foreign-language films ever? Drop your predictions in the comments about which performances, directors, and films will make the final cut when nominations get announced.
Share this breakdown with your movie-obsessed friend who’s already filling out Oscar prediction ballots. Follow for continued awards season coverage because these five films are just the beginning, November and December will bring dozens more contenders all fighting for the same limited nomination slots. The 98th Academy Awards ceremony happens March 2026, but the race to get there starts right now, this weekend, with these five films proving that awards season is officially on.
